What Recovery?

Monthnotes Thought-Piece #1

At best we know very little about the route to economic recovery from COVID 19, at worst we know nothing. In boardrooms, committees rooms and chambers across the UK talk is turning from response to recovery. Make no mistake we will be in response for many more months to come and this tentative foray into discussions of repossessing our most recent economic history is almost as naive as it is premature.

Even if this was something feasible would it actually be desirable? Hasn’t our recent economic paradigm been one of the reasons we are in the situation we are in now? If there was ever a more compelling catalyst to make the radical shifts we have been paying lip service to for the last few years is this not it?

If we were to challenge the system and use this moment as our economic pivot, no doubt there will be some serious soul searching and we will have to learn about real honesty not to mention that it is far from uncertain on what any such future economy might look like.

This article by Micha Narberhaus captures this perfectly and I suggest you read it; Many of us (myself included) think this should be the time to pivot socially, economically and environmentally, but the reality is that none of have any idea what a post growth economy might manifest as? Certainly the demographic groups that have failed to benefit from neo liberalism will not suddenly see improvements in quality of life, access and wealth. If any thing they will again be those left worse off post Covid whilst governments scrabble around the big corporations in attempts to fast track any form of growth: exclusive, poor or even fundamentally damaging…

But trying to resurrect the ghost of the globalised neo liberal paradigm whenever COVID dwindles is not viable or desirable, socially, environmentally or economically in the 21st century, and any reflexivity of learning we have accrued through the last long weeks should be held up as the starting pillars for how we rebuild, not to be claimed by either the right or left but just by humans.

My sense from a UK perspective is that any shift in economic direction should be and may have to be driven from a local level, harnessing local markets, demand and challenges on a community level. Currently I would argue our governance structures are not fit for purpose in that respect and devolved or community powers need to be addressed as a priority.

Supply chain failure will show just how fragile our current system is as no doubt the likely peak in demand post lockdown will expose this inevitable fracturing. This is why local markets will be crucial for people and communities. However, how much debt will be accrued by surviving SMEs who will be one of the core parts of how we grow resilience bottom up and at a local level? Loans will need to be paid back right? how is the debt facilitated and how can this incentive local resilience? Anyone up for opening a community bank?

How is the once blurred, now opaque line between public, private and third sector addressed for a post Covid 21st century world? How much more pressure on “public services?” Not just the NHS… Local Government, already decimated by years of austerity will have to lead any recovery right? How many critical services are currently delivered by the private sector?

These are a only minutiae of a spectrum of systems questions which need consideration and discourse. Interesting on a webinar with the IED today, social value only came up once in questioning from an audience of 200….

There are no answers right now, no recovery strategies riding on a silver bullet, but there should be challenging questions, honest dialogue, reflection and a considered and iterative discourse on what we need on a human level.

So for a starter for 10 I’ve just added some headings below. These are some initial points for starting to think about what recovery might mean rather than starting at the point of how we start to grow GDP again! They’re not exhaustive but it would be great to start some meaningful dialogue on them? I’d love for people to add to them too so please share widely;

2008 recovery: Are there even any comparisons?

Climate and zero carbon 2040: Knife edge or once in a lifetime opportunity?

Brexit: Remember this?

Behaviour Change: Social Value, Reflection, Communities? will we approach consumerism in a different way?

Neo liberal politics: Is this the final nail?

Globalisation: ?

Trade: ?

Movement: social distancing, remote working, travel and transport

Land — Use: is this a dangerous time to fast track decision making?

Structures of governance: UK Local and Central Gov? Regional, Unitary, Community Empowerment?